General analysis about forex market: 10th October -14th October

EURUSD technical analysis

The medium-term uptrend in the EURUSD pair still intact since it has been traded above the bullish trend line support in the last week. Currently, price is trading around the 200 and 100 days SMA and traders are expecting a strong bullish breakout in the EURUSD pair in the upcoming week. Near-term support for the EURUSD pair is at 1.10683 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement level lines. (Drawn from the low of 3rd December 2015 to the high of 3rd may 2015)A clear decisive break of the 1.10683 level is required in order to weaken the bullish momentum of the pair. However, the pair is most likely to face a significant amount of resistance at 1.0930 level where the 61.8% retracement level lies. A daily closing below that level will confirm the end of the bullish run in the EURUSD pair. The fresh selling pressure will be triggered once the 61.8% retracement level fails to hold the decisive move of the pair. The initial bearish target of the pair would be the low 3rd may 2015 at 1.0500 level. However, the current fundamental analysis of the U.S economy doesn’t suggest such a strong bearish move in the EURUSD pair. Traders are waiting cautiously to buy the EURO near the 61.8 retracement level with price action confirmation signal. The first initial bullish target for the pair would be the crystal resistance level at 1.1400 level. A clear break of that level will bring further upward rally in the pair towards the 1.1600 level. Considering all the facts, the EURUSD has more upside potential in the upcoming week.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD forex pair has formed a nice ascending triangle like structure in the daily chart in the last few months. Currently, the price is a little bit exhausted after the strong bullish run in the last couple of months. Near term support for the AUDUSD pair lies at 0.7510 level where the rising trend line of the ascending triangle lies. Professional traders will look for bullish price action confirmation signal near the trend line support to enter long into this pair. The first initial bullish target for this pair would be triangle sloping resistance line at 0.7700 level. A valid break of that level will confirm the establishment of medium-term uptrend in the AUDUSD pair. Followed by the bullish breakout of the triangle pattern the pair is most likely to head north towards the critical resistance at 0.7800 level. A clear decisive break of that level will bring further upward rally in the pair towards the 0.8000 mark. But the pair will face a significant amount of resistance near the 0.7700 mark where we might see some fresh selling pressure in the AUDUSD pair. In the recent week, the most important event will be the FOMC meeting minutes. Traders are waiting cautiously for a hint about the interest rate decision in the market. Considering all the fact the AUDUSD pair is currently showing neutral momentum in the market. A clear breakout of the triangle pattern is required in order to trade the pair in the longer time frame.

NZDUSD technical analysis

The medium-term uptrend in the NZDUSD pair is still intact and currently the price is testing the 100 day SMA in the daily chart at 0.7129 level. The pair is most likely to find some support at the 100-day dynamic resistance level but the bullish momentum of the pair will be fade out if the pair manages to close below the 100 days SMA.A clear decisive break of that level will bring strong downward momentum in the pair towards the 0.6950 level where the 200 day SMA lies. Those who are bullish on this pair are waiting cautiously for the price to retrace back to 200 days SMA support. Professional traders will enter long in this pair near the 200 day SMA with price action confirmation signal. If the support level at 0.6950 level fails to restrict the bearish momentum in this pair then the next bearish target for this pair would be the key support level at 0.6680 level. On the contrary, the first initial bullish target for this pair would be critical resistance at 0.7380 level. If the pair manages to breach that level then we are most likely to see a strong upward rally in the pair towards the 0.7600 level. Considering all the fact the overall bias for the NZDUSD pair still remains bullish in the upcoming week.

USDJPY technical analysis

The medium term down trend in the EURUSD pair is still intact in the USDJPY pair and most likely to move further north in this week. Currently, the pair is testing the critical resistance level at 104.40 level. A bullish break of that resistance level will bring the retest of 200 days SMA. The pair is most likely to face significant amount resistance at 107.70 level. Professional traders are waiting to short this pair with price action confirmation signal near the 200 days SMA with an initial target of 104.40 level. A clear decisive break of that level will bring further downward momentum in the pair, targeting the key support level at 99.50 level. The overall bias strongly remains bearish in the USDJPY pairs technically and fundamentally. The pair has very little upside potential in this week. However, a valid break of the 200 days daily SMA will create some bullish momentum in this pair. Considering all the fact, we remain strongly bearish in the USDJPY pairs in the recent week.

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