General analysis about forex market: 28th November -2nd December

EURUSD technical analysis

There has been a nice sign of recovery in the EURUSD pair in last week as the pair formed a nice bullish reversal pattern in the daily chart after hitting the critical support level at 1.05151.The recent strength of the US dollar has pushed all the major currencies in the forex market towards a new low in the very beginning of the month of September however the ongoing strength of the green bucks has faded to a certain extent in the last week. If the critical support level at 1.05151 manages to give some fresh buying pressure to the EURUSD pair then we might see a nice bullish retracement in the pair in the upcoming week. The upcoming week is going to play important role in the next move of the EURUSD pair since ECB president Mario Draghi will arrange a press conference on Monday. The buyers might find some fuel in the market if Draghi comes out with a hawkish statement in his press conference.

Though we are seeing a nice sign of recovery in the EURUSD pair but investors are in fear to enter long at the current level since the green bucks have plenty of important news release in the upcoming days. The pending interest rate hike is also supporting the bears in the market to a great extent. The last two-month performance of the U.S economy was significantly great and the current U.S consumer’s sentiment is also positive. According to the U.S interest rate hike monitor tool, there is 91.3 % chance that the FED will hike their interest rate in the month of December. However, if the manages to find enough buyers then we might see a decent rise in the EURUSD pair towards the next critical resistance level at 1.08505.Considering all the current situation the overall condition for the EURUSD pair remains slightly bearish in the upcoming week and optimistic traders are expecting a nice retracement in the pair.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The Great Britain pound is still in correction after the massive downfall during the Brexit event. The pair started its bullish correction after hitting the critical support level at 1.20345 on the daily chart. In the last week, the pair formed a nice bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart after hitting the minor support level at 1.23076.If the buyers manage to push the sellers away from the market then we will see a nice bullish retracement in the pair towards the next critical resistance level at 126718.However, the pair is most likely to find a significant amount of selling pressure from that level and professional traders will be cautiously observing that level to enter short with bearish price action confirmation signal. The first bearish target for the GBPUSD pair would be the nearest support level at 1.23076.A valid break of the price below that level will bring fresh selling pressure in the market.

The recent strength of the U.S dollar has created a massive fear into buyers mind. In the upcoming week, the ADP Non-firm payroll data will be released and traders are expecting high volatility in the market. If the data comes better than expected then the recent bullish momentum of the GBPUSD pair will fade away. On the contrary, if it comes negative then we can expect the continuation of the bullish retracement in the GBPUSD pair till the next FOMC meeting minutes. Investors are cautiously waiting for the next FOMC meeting minutes as the FED is going to hike the interest rate in the month of December. A hawkish hike of the interest rate will make the dollar broadly stronger against all its major rivals and we might see a new low in the GBPUSD pair.

USDCAD technical analysis

There has been massive indecision in the USDCAD market since the price of the oil market is extremely unstable at the current moment. Professional traders are cautiously waiting for the OPEC meeting as they leading policymakers are most likely to cap the production oil in the global world. If OPEC manages to implement their policy in their next meeting then the USDCAD pair might slide lower in the forex market. Canada is one of the major oil producing countries in the world and if the price of oil rises then we will see a strong bearish rally in the USDCAD pair. On the contrary, the ongoing issue of the U.S pending interest rate hike decision has doubled the confusion in the market. However, the FED is most likely to hike their interest rate in the month of December and with a clear hike, the USDCAD pair might reach the next critical resistance level at 1.38425.

Technically the USDCAD pair testing the critical resistance level at 1.35841 and the pair is having a tough time breaking that level. If the critical resistance level at 1.35841 holds then the pair will move towards the next critical support level at 1.33139.From that level, we might see some bullish bounce in the USDCAD pair. Fundamentally we are in between nowhere since FED is most likely to hike their interest rate in the month of December and OPEC is going to cut the production oil to a certain extent. Considering the provided scenario both the pairs have strong chance to gain strength in the market which means we have no clear clue about the next move of the USDCAD pair. In the eyes of trained professional, it’s better to stay on the sideline until both the countries come up with a clear fundamental view in the upcoming days.

 

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